Table: Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions for Tasmania from June 2018 run models

Author: | Date: 04 Jul 2018

Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions for Tasmania from June 2018 run models
 

Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Models

Multi Model Ensembles

Statistical

 

System 5

ECMWF

Europe

POAMA2

BoM

Australia

SINTEX-F

JAMSTEC

Japan

CFSv2

NCEP

USA

GEOS-S2S

NASA

USA

ENS

JMA

Japan

CSM1.1

BCC

China

UKMO

GloSea5

UK

NMME

USA

APCC

Korea

EUROSIP

Europe

SOI phase

USQ/Qld

Australia

Month of Run

June

June

June

June

June

June

May

June

June

June

June

June

Forecast months

JAS

JAS

JJA

JAS

JAS

JAS

JAS

JAS

JAS

JAS

JAS

JAS

Rainfall Skill

Low

Low

NA

Low

Low

Low

NA

Moderate

Low

NA

Low

NA

Winter Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Warm

(weak El Niño)

Neutral

Warm

(El Niño Modoki)

Slightly warm

Slightly warm

Slightly warm

Slightly warm

Warm

(El Niño)

Warm (weak El Niño)

Slightly warm

Warm (weak El Niño)

-

Winter Eastern

Indian Ocean

Slightly cool

Neutral

Cool (+IOD)

Neutral,

(weak +IOD)

Slightly warm

Neutral

Slightly warm

(weak –IOD)

Slightly warm

(weak –IOD)

Neutral,

(weak +IOD)

Neutral

Neutral

-

Winter Rainfall

Average

Slightly drier W, slightly wetter E

Average

Slightly drier

Slightly drier W, average E

Average

Average

Average

Slightly drier W, average E

Average

NA

Average

Winter Temperature

Slightly warmer

Slightly warmer

Average

Average, slightly cooler NE

Slightly

warmer

Average

Average

Average

Average

Slightly warmer

NA

-

Forecast months

OND

OND

SON

OND

OND

-

OND

SON

SON

OND

SON

-

Spring Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Warm

(El Niño)

Neutral

Warm

(El Niño Modoki)

Slightly warm

Warm

(El Niño)

-

Warm

(weak El Niño)

Warm

(El Niño)

Warm

(El Niño)

Warm

(weak El Niño)

Warm

(El Niño)

-

Spring Eastern

Indian  Ocean

Neutral

Neutral

Cool (+IOD)

Slightly warm

Slightly warm

-

Neutral

(weak –IOD)

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

-

Spring Rainfall

Average

Slightly drier

Slightly drier E, average W

Slightly drier

Slightly drier S, average N

-

Average

Average

Slightly drier W, average E

Average

NA

-

Spring Temperature

Slightly warmer

Slightly warmer

Average

Average E, slightly warmer W

Slightly

warmer

-

Average

Average

Slightly warmer

Slightly warmer

NA

-

Notes

Operational

Operational

Experimental

Operational

Experimental

Experimental

Operational

Operational

Experimental

Summary of 4 dynamic models

Experimental

Summary of 8 dynamic models

Experimental

Summary of 5 dynamic models

5 phase system based on previous 2 months SOI