Fast Break: Season climate risk information for South Australia
Author: Dale Grey, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources | Date: 01 Jun 2018
Volume 1 | Issue 2
Welcome to the second “Fast Break” newsletter aimed at the South Australian grains industry. Our team has been preparing this monthly newsletter for more than 12 years in Victoria and with GRDC funding we are now able to present it for South Australians. If you like it, please consider passing it on through your networks so that others may subscribe.
The Pacific and Indian Oceans are still neutral, but local weather patterns consisting of very high pressure systems over Australia, are resulting in a continuation of the drier weather over the vast majority of South Australia.
Cloud patterns at the Dateline are still La Niña like, but other indicators (trade winds, SOI and surface temperatures) are normal. Surface heat under the Pacific increased during May, but didn’t track much further east.
The SAM is also neutral, meaning frontal systems are in a normal position spinning around Antarctica.
What isn’t normal is the blocking high over the Bight, chasing fronts and lows away and, of such strength, that its movement eastward is painfully slowly.
This large high is also having an impact on the water temperature in the Timor Sea, where stronger easterly winds are stirring the surface up and making it cooler. Cloud patterns off Sumatra are also not ideal.
All these things are hopefully temporary, but until they change, dry conditions seem likely.
Current predictions for the Pacific and Indian Oceans are all over the shop, but mainly sitting around neutral. A couple more models jumped on the El Niño train this month, and a few models got off the -IOD bandwagon.
Most models are still sitting on the fence with average rainfall for winter and spring, with warmer to average temperatures. Remembering that an average forecast in this context means an equal chance of above or below average rainfall.
If you would like more explanation of the contents of this newsletter, why not join our webinar for South Australia on 19 June. Follow this link for details.
Model distribution summary for the next three months
Model distribution summary for the next four to six months
Model consensus forecast for the next six months
Current outlook (28 May)
Previous outlook (28 April)
Neutral (possible El Niño)
Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions for South Australia from May 2018 run models
To view the table below, please download the word document with the table contained inside.
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