Fast Break: Season climate risk information for Tasmania
Author: Dale Grey, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources | Date: 01 Jun 2018
Volume 1 | Issue 2
Welcome to the second “Fast Break” newsletter aimed at the Tasmanian grains industry. Our team has been preparing this monthly newsletter for 12 years in Victoria, and with GRDC funding we are now able to present it for Tasmania. If you like it, please consider passing it on through your networks so that others may subscribe.
The Pacific and Indian Oceans are still neutral, but the weather patterns consisting of very high pressure systems over Australia, are resulting in a continuation of drier weather over much of mainland SE Australia and the northern third of Tasmania.
Cloud patterns at the Dateline are still La Niña like, but other indicators (trade winds, SOI and surface temperatures) are normal. Surface heat under the Pacific increased during May, but didn’t track much further east.
The SAM is also neutral, meaning frontal systems are in a normal position spinning around Antarctica. This has helped much of Tasmania to get some rain, when the mainland has missed out.
What isn’t normal is the blocking high over the Bight, chasing fronts and lows away from the mainland. The position of the high further north than normal has been a bonus for Tasmania, letting fronts across.
This large high is also having an impact on the water temperature in the Timor Sea, where stronger easterly winds are stirring the surface up and making it cooler. Cloud patterns off Sumatra are also not ideal.
All these things are hopefully temporary, but until they change, drier conditions seem likely.
Current predictions for the Pacific and Indian Oceans are all over the shop, but mainly sitting around neutral. A couple more models jumped on the El Niño train this month, and a few models got off the -IOD bandwagon.
Most models are still sitting on average rainfall for winter and spring, with warmer to average temperatures. Remembering that an average forecast in this context means an equal chance of above or below average rainfall.
If you would like more explanation of the contents of this newsletter, why not join our webinar for Tasmania on 20 June. Follow this link for details.
Model distribution summary for the next three months
Model distribution summary for the next four to six months
Model consensus forecast for the next six months
Current outlook (28 May)
Previous outlook (28 April)
Neutral (possible El Niño)
Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions for Tasmania from May 2018 run models
To view the table below, please download the word document with the table contained inside.
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