Tasmania - Fast Break
Author: Dale Grey | Issue: 1 | Date: 28 Nov 2018
Welcome to your Fast Break newsletter
You are reading the 8th Fast Break for Tasmania
Volume 1 | Issue 8 | Tasmania | Published: 28 November 2018
Welcome to our eighth “Fast Break” newsletter for the Tasmanian grains industry. Our team has been preparing this monthly newsletter for 12 years in Victoria and with GRDC support we are now able to present it for Tasmania. If you like it, please consider passing it on through your networks and subscribing.
The Pacific Ocean surface and undersea temperatures remain in an El Niño state, but little else is interested in making this a fully-fledged event. Trade winds, cloud patterns at the Dateline and pressure patterns around the equator remain at normal levels. This indicates an uncoupled ocean and atmosphere. In this case, local influences on climate are more likely than classical El Niño effects. Models are keen on the temperature of the Pacific to last at El Niño thresholds for the next five months. Historically, when El Niño’s have occurred over summer, the rainfall has been evenly split between wet, average or dry across Tasmania. Autumn El Niño conditions would not necessarily be cause for alarm either, as the Pacific would normally be resetting back to neutral sometime around then. It would be good to see a proper coupled El Niño over summer, to disperse some of the heat out of the Pacific Ocean leaving less around for next season.
Summer rainfall predictions are spread around average or drier. Historically, the most likely effect of a summer El Niño is warmer temperatures and in this the models are in strong agreement.
Model consensus forecast for the next six months
Current outlook (27 November)
Previous outlook (30 October)
El Niño (Modoki)
El Niño (Modoki)
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