Tasmania
Date: 28 Apr 2022
Seasonal climate risk information for Tasmania
Volume 5 | Issue 4 | 28 April 2022
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Rainfall has been useful east and west of Launceston with 25 plus mm, but only 10-25mm has fallen in the rest of the Midlands. Up until 27th April this was rated at 20-40 per cent of normal. Soil moisture is also ranked drier at decile one to three in the Midlands with pasture paddocks predicted to be 0-25 per cent full of plant available moisture.
The eastern Pacific Ocean remains cooler to depth and slightly increased in extent, capable of further La Niña activity, but the surface temperatures have become closer to normal. Trade winds are a bit stronger in the western Pacific but could be more convincing. They are still holding warmer water to our north particularly south of the Equator. Cloud patterns at the Dateline and a strengthening SOI indicate that the atmosphere is not quite ready to give up on La Niña like behaviour. Seas are very warm to Australia’s north and evaporating more moisture, lowering the pressure. Models are generally leaning towards the neutral Pacific continuing, but 4/12 models pick it back up again for a third La Niña in a row. The Indian Ocean is completely normal with basin-wide warming. Some stronger westerly wind towards Java is likely to increase warming in this region, something a number of models are predicting. All models predict a negative Indian Ocean Dipole to form in coming months, but this is an unreliable time of the year for IOD prediction. It’s also not completely obvious where the model signal is coming from. Just slightly warmer water to depth and the stronger westerly wind activity is all that can be seen at the moment.
The Southern Annular Mode has stayed positive for another month, and this this can have erratic effects in autumn. The stronger easterly wind over Bass Strait has possible been keeping the far north in business but has really kept the west drier than normal. The +SAM has also been conspiring with the higher pressure to be sending rainfall triggers further south.
My assessment of 12 climate models for Tasmania shows neutral rainfall predictions and likely warmer temperatures for the next three months.
People are reminded that in autumn, the resetting nature of the tropical oceans makes it an uncertain time for predictions for both autumn and winter. For more information about the autumn predictability barrier check out our eLearn: https://rise.articulate.com/share/laU0Fh8td92Wodvmg6M6kQZLovAJCNgx
Soil moisture

Model distribution summary for the next three months

Model distribution summary for the next four to six months

Model consensus forecast for the next six months
Current outlook (28 April) | Previous outlook (28 March) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
May-Jul | Aug-Oct | Apr-Jun | Jul-Sep | |
Pacific Ocean | Slightly cool / cool | Normal | Cool (La Niña) | Slightly cool / |
Indian Ocean | Warm (-IOD) | Warm (-IOD) | Slightly warmer | Warm (-IOD) |
Rainfall | Neutral | Warmer | Neutral | Warmer |
Temperature | Neutral | Warmer | Neutral | Warmer |
Sea surface temperature anomalies

Equatorial Pacific sub-sea temperature anomalies

Southern Oscillation Index

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Pacific Ocean surface wind anomalies

World cloudiness anomalies

Southern Annular Mode

Air pressure

Air pressure anomalies

Modelled Climate and Ocean Predictions for Tasmania from April 2022 run models

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