Hyper Yielding and Profitable Cereals - Quantifying the economic impact of management practices for wheat and barley in medium and low rainfall zones of the southern region

This GRDC investment led by CSIRO brings together experts in crop agronomy, physiology, modelling, economics and communication. The focus is on raising yield potentials in environments where water is more likely to limit yield in some seasons more than others. While the Hyper Yielding Crops (HYC) investment has shown a higher yield frontier can be achieved in non-water limited environments with tactical agronomy, there is less clarity for low to medium rainfall areas, where agronomic data is often scattered, inconclusive, and forensic (e.g. the benefit of hindsight).

The investment will demonstrate, evaluate, and compare cereal crop management strategies across different seasonal outcomes in the L-MRZ of South Australia and Victoria with the establishment of six core sites. The goal is to provide evidence for assessing the probability and profitability of various management strategies, enabling growers to shift from conservative low-input approaches to more ambitious strategies when conditions are favorable or to answer how growers can better set up tactical systems to take advantage of good seasons without increasing risk in environments where early season decisions dominate. Understanding the impact of early season decisions on yield in above-average rainfall years is crucial for long-term productivity and profitability. This will be supported by simulation modelling and economic analysis to scale findings over multiple scenarios, supporting better adoption of tactical agronomy for maximizing yield during critical periods in variable climates.

Key outcomes include updated benchmarks for crop and soil traits at actionable points in the season to better target and increase water-limited yield potential (WLYP) in the L-MRZ. The goal is to develop agronomic systems with high stability and adaptability to most seasons, and to explore innovations that can raise the WLYP frontier above current benchmarks. The project will rigorously evaluate the highest known genetic yield potentials for wheat and barley in L/MRZ under both low and high-input conditions, and under logistical constraints like sowing date and timing of inputs.