Improving seasonal forecasting

Improved seasonal forecasts are an essential part of helping Australian producers manage climate risk and successfully mitigate the impact on farm production and income.

The challenge

Australian farmers and agribusiness operate in one of the most variable climates in the world, with extreme events and climate variability the largest drivers of fluctuations in annual agricultural income and production.

In 2014, the Centre for International Economics estimated that the benefit to Australian agriculture from seasonal forecasting ranged from $958 million to nearly $1.9 billion per year, and that was without knowledge of extreme events included in the analysis.

Demand for improved seasonal forecasting tools has grown significantly in recent decades in the wake of improvements in technology and connectivity.

Development of improved forecasting services and tools, particularly with regards to extreme events, is an area in which GRDC has co-invested to assist growers in the management of their cropping programs and farm business within a changing climate.

The response

For more than 20 years, Australian agricultural industry organisations including the GRDC have collaboratively invested in the national Managing Climate Variability Program (MCV) which has aimed to:

• Improve the accuracy of forecasting on time frames of value for primary producers
• Provide climate products, services and tools for managing climate risk
• Increase primary producers’ knowledge and confidence to adopt climate risk management strategies.

The MCV program has been instrumental in bringing together a wide cross-section of industry bodies and research institutions to strengthen the link between climate research and the on-farm application of seasonal climate forecasts. This collaborative approach has enabled the grains industry to leverage better value for the investment in climate research and encouraged cross-industry learning about climate risk management.

Projects conducted under the MCV program include the completed Seasonal Forecasting project which focuses on the improved use of seasonal forecasting to increase producer profitability, and the Forewarned is Forearmed project which aims to improve the forecasting of extreme climate events including high or low rainfall, heat, cold and frost. These two projects are supported by funding from the Australian Government through the Rural R&D for Profit program.

Investments generated through the MCV program, such as the Forewarned is Forearmed project, play a key role in helping growers and producers manage climate risk on-farm and ultimately manage sustainable and profitable farm businesses amidst a variable and changing climate.

Climate tools enable growers to respond to short-term weather events for critical decision points including sowing time, seeding depth, spray program or frost and heat response.

Improved forecasting can potentially allow growers to save on inputs by having the right information at the right time. Being informed and able to response to weather events could save between $8/ha to $16/ha for weed or pest spray event to $80/ha or $100/ha for a frost event where a crop could be cut for hay.

The impact

South Australian grower and farm business consultant Barry Mudge knows all too well the challenges of farming in an ‘unreliable’ environment, cropping 1600 hectares across properties at Mambray Creek, Baroota and Port Germein with a mean annual rainfall of 330 millimetres and average growing season (April-October) rainfall of 220mm.

However, he says unreliability does not imply non-viability, with growers such as those in low rainfall zones already well versed in managing a variable climate.

“The keys to managing the impact of climate variability are adaptation, flexibility and innovation,” he said.

While he has used seasonal forecasts over the years to help guide seasonal expectations and planting decisions, he firmly believes it is important to take into account the skill level behind the forecast before relying on it to guide farm management decisions.

“We are very fortunate in Australia to have comprehensive climate records dating back at least 100 years. This provides us with an excellent starting point in understanding what the variability of our seasons looks like – all a seasonal outlook forecast does is potentially alter the probabilities of the various outcomes occurring,” he said.

“Too often we tend to allow forecasts to subjectively invade our sub-conscious and affect our decision making, however a little bit of analysis of the range of possibilities and how a seasonal outlook forecast could change these is usually a worthwhile exercise.

“We accept that we farm in a highly unreliable and climatically variable region. Seasonal outlook forecasts will not change this.

“But used cleverly, they can enable us to at least be more comfortable with the many climate-sensitive decisions that we need to make in the course of our farming careers.”

Mr Mudge features in a GRDC video on ‘Using seasonal forecasts to manage risk and increase profit’.

Independent evaluations show that the benefit-to-cost ratio of industry investment in the MCV program is substantial – for each dollar spent, it’s estimated there has been a return of over $6.60 (Agtrans Research 2015).

The outlook

Helping growers manage climate risk will continue to be an investment priority for the GRDC which has in place an investment strategy aimed at improving the accuracy of short-range and medium-range weather forecasting.

GRDC will continue to work and co-invest with other RDCs and broader industry stakeholders to deliver new and innovative RD&E outcomes that help growers manage climate risk to run profitable and sustainable farm businesses.

Download the full case study (PDF).